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Updated BUENAS Methodology and Results Indicate Saving Potential Estimates for MEPS in 12 Major World Economies

The Bottom-Up Energy Analysis System (BUENAS) is a policy analysis tool created by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and supported by CLASP, the Super-efficient Equipment and Appliance Deployment (SEAD) initiative, and the International Copper Association.

BUENAS, which covers 13 major economies contributing to 77% of global energy demand[1], is designed to provide estimates of potential CO2 and energy savings impacts for a wide range of residential, commercial, and industrial end uses. BUENAS also enables consistent comparison of impacts of the energy efficiency standards and labeling (S&L) policies across major economies.

The characteristics that, taken together, distinguish BUENAS from other modeling tools are that BUENAS:

  • Covers multiple economies around the world;
  • Models energy end use demand from the bottom-up according to engineering and use patterns; and
  • Projects energy and CO2 savings based on specific efficiency targets judged to be achievable through near- to mid-term S&L policy implementation.

The 12 economies that are covered in this document are Australia, Brazil, Canada, the European Union, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, and the United States.

Part I

Part I of this report provides policymakers and S&L practitioners with a high-level overview of the BUENAS modeling framework, defines the scope of BUENAS, and describes potential uses of the model. For example, BUENAS has been used as an S&L policy planning and prioritization tool for developing countries as well as international initiatives such as the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the SEAD Initiative.

Part I also describes results from two policy scenarios – recent achievements (RA) and best practice (BP):

  • The RA scenario quantifies the effectiveness of recently implemented, announced, and in progress minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) between January 1, 2000 and April 1, 2011.
  • The BP scenario estimates the potential impacts of an economy adopting the most stringent standards to date (as of April 2011) by 2015.

Based on the S&L policies achieved to date in the 12 economies covered in this analysis (all of the above except China), BUENAS estimates global savings of:

  • 389 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity annually in 2030; and
  • 219 million tons (Mt) of CO2 emissions annually in 2030.

Part II

Part II of this report provides a detailed description of the BUENAS methodology and data sources. It is intended for a technical audience and assumes some familiarity with the parameters used in energy demand and policy modeling.

The information in Part II includes:

  • Definitions and main outputs of the model, in equation form;
  • Key data inputs;
  • Mechanics of key modeling variables by product group; and
  • Detailed description of RA and BP scenarios.

Authors: Michael A. McNeil, Virginie E. Letschert, Stephane de la Rue du Can and Jing Ke; LBNL

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[1] The version of BUENAS described in this document does not include China, which is not a SEAD member. This document describes the model for 12 countries, which account for 62% of world energy. The BUENAS model for China is described in detail in Zhou, N., D. Fridley, M. A. McNeil, N. Zheng, V. Letschert, J. Ke and Y. Saheb. (2011) “Analysis of potential energy saving and CO2 emission reduction of home appliances and commercial equipments in China”.  Energy Policy, 39(8): 4541-4550