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BUENAS Scenarios Estimate Cost-Effective and Technical Savings Potential for MEPS in 13 Major World Economies

The Bottom-Up Energy Analysis System (BUENAS) is a policy analysis tool created by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and supported by CLASP and the Super-efficient Equipment and Appliance Deployment (SEAD) Initiative

BUENAS provides estimates of potential CO2 ,energy savings and financial impacts for a wide range of residential, commercial, and industrial end uses. BUENAS enables consistent comparison of the impacts of energy efficiency standards & labeling (S&L) policies across major economies.

LBNL developed two scenarios – cost-effective potential (CEP) and best available technology (BAT) – to project potential savings from implementing policies of various stringencies in 13 major economies. The economies  covered in these scenarios are Australia, Brazil, China, Canada, the European Union, India, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Korea, and the United States. For these two scenarios, BUENAS includes a range of residential and industrial end uses.  The commercial sector is not covered.

Cost-Effective Potential Scenario

The CEP scenario identifies policies that would maximize energy and CO2 emissions savings while saving consumers money if implemented in the world’s major economies. CEP policies are determined according to the cost of conserved energy of various design options or technologies.  CEP scenario results enable policymakers to assess the energy and CO2 savings potentials of cost-effective policies and prioritize S&L policies that have the largest impact while benefiting consumers.

Based on the CEP scenario, the estimated global savings are:

  • 770 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity in 2020 and 1,500 TWh in 2030;
  • Reduced energy consumption in 2030 of 17% in the residential sector and 4% in the industrial sector;
  • 540 million tons (Mt) of CO2 emissions annually in 2020 and 1,000 MtCO2 in 2030; and
  • Cumulative consumer financial benefits of 1,500 billion USD from 2015-2030.

Best Available Technology Scenario

The BAT scenario models the impacts that would result if economies adopted MEPS mandating the most efficient already available product or technologies across all end-uses. The BAT targets represent the maximum achievable energy-efficient designs, based on super efficient emerging technologies or designs combining most efficient components already commercially available.  BAT scenario results provide estimates of energy efficiency technical potential, or the maximum potential savings that would result from implementation of MEPS requiring BAT in 13 economies.

Based on the BAT scenario, the estimated global savings are:

  • 1,200 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity in 2020 and 2,300 TWh in 2030;
  • Reduced energy consumption in 2030 of 27% in the residential sector and 6% in the industrial sector;
  • 860 million tons (Mt) reduction in annual CO2 emissions by 2020 and 1,700 MtCO2 by 2030; and
  • Emissions reductions from electricity generation equal to 60% of the total reduction needed to remain under 450 ppm CO2 by 2030.

Authors:

CEP: Virginie E. Letschert, Nicholas Bojda, Jing Ke, and Michael A. McNeil
BAT: Virginie E. Letschert, Louis-Benoit Desroches, Jing Ke, and Michael A. McNeil

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